The influence of temperature and precipitation on the production and revenue of in-shell Brazil nuts in the southwestern Amazon

Abstract

The rise in temperature and changes in rainfall patterns in the Amazon may impact the phenology and survival of native species, such as the Brazil nut tree (Bertholletia excelsa, Lecythidaceae), a species of great socioeconomic importance in the state of Acre, one of Brazil's top producers of Brazil nuts. This study aimed to evaluate whether average annual temperature and precipitation influence almond production and revenue in the Brazil nut production chain in the state. Data on average temperature and precipitation (2000–2023) were obtained from the Agritempo platform, focusing on Acrean municipalities where B. excelsa occurs. Data on Brazil nut production and revenue were sourced from IBGE/SIDRA. Spearman’s correlation tests, principal component analysis (PCA), and multiple linear regression were applied to assess the impact of climatic variables on almond productivity and revenue. Statistical analyses were conducted using RStudio with specialized packages. Spearman's correlation indicated that average temperature is positively, moderately, and significantly correlated with the revenue and price of Brazil nuts in Acre. Precipitation showed a positive, moderate, and significant correlation with production and revenue. The PCA revealed that the first two components explained 80% of the data variance, highlighting the influence of climate on economic variables. The regression confirmed that precipitation significantly affects production and revenue, while temperature did not show a statistically significant effect, suggesting that other factors also influence the Brazil nut production chain.

Keywords: Brazil nut production chain, Climate variability, Extractive economy